Statistically Speaking: Utah vs. Oregon State
Brant Kuithe's season-ending injury has some fans questioning Utah's position as conference title favorite. Despite a strong performance from Dalton Kincaid and Thomas Yassmin, there's reason to be concerned. Brant's production consistently put him among the best tight ends in the country, and while Yassmin's defender-dragging 72 yard reception was a jaw dropping display of athletic superiority, it was also his only reception of the game and just his second of the season.
Much of what Kuithe brought to the field is difficult to quantify. He's far from the prototypical tight end, and stretches defenses in unique ways that create opportunities for other players. Tight ends of all sorts are also essential players in ways that are invisible on the stat sheet- as pass blockers, lead run blockers, and both decoys and blockers on screens. Just the production that we can see, though, will be difficult to replace.
From 2018-2021, the average featured PAC 12 TE (at least 1 reception per game) averaged 2 receptions and 28 yards a game and one TD every four or five games. Starting last year and going into this year, Kuithe put up twice as many receptions, half again as many yards, and a touchdown every two games. That's a huge gap that your average tight end can't fill and, if we simply replace Kuithe with a 'replacement level' PAC 12 tight end, would cost the Utes about 17 points over the course of their remining 8 regular season games, making them 6-7% less likely to have 7 or more conference wins.
The good news is that we already know Dalton Kincaid is far above average himself. His per-reception yardage and touchdown rate are both actually higher than Kuithe's, and he should pick up 2 or 3 more receptions a game, leaving only a little slack for Yassmin. Even if Yassmin can't match the production of Kuithe or Kincaid, Utah should not feel too much pain from Kuithe's absence in the passing game.
If Utah's offense takes a significant step back without Kuithe on the field, it will be the result of the tougher to analyze parts of his game. That's a very real risk, but for the purposes of projection that step back needs to be seen to be believed. With what we know Utah has on the bench, they should be able to keep producing points without a noticeable hitch.
Oregon State glaring defect is their run defense; they rank 105th in yards per carry nationally and are giving up an average of 7 yards per carry to lead rushers through four games. For a team like Utah which thrives on controlling the pace of a football game, it's hard to see how this ends well for the Beavers. Expect a steady and effective diet of JQJ and Tavion Thomas to complement a light touch on the passing game and a fast moving clock without a lot of intrigue. The Beavers won't be able to get the ball back often enough or score fast enough to keep this one close late.
Utah 33, Oregon State 21