Statistically Speaking: Utah vs. Oregon

It’s hard to quibble with the magnificent performance Utah put together in Los Angeles last week. Any ‘nits’ one tried to pick would have to confront 482 yards of offense, over ten yards per pass attempt, and the +1 in the win column that is the most important stat of all. On the road against a playoff contender with a Heisman quarterback playing for his life, you couldn’t have asked for a more triumphant performance from Utah as a whole and Bryson Barnes in particular.

There’s a lot to applaud, but the transformative power of Sione Vaki on Utah’s offense has been the story of the past two weeks. His own stats speak for themselves- 31 touches have gone for 376 yards and 4 touchdowns, blistering numbers that echo those of college football playmaking legends like Christian McCaffrey. But equally remarkable has been- despite only catching a handful of passes, Bryson Barnes has also reaped tremendous benefits from the change.

Without Vaki on the field, Barnes completed 51% of his throws for six yards per attempt with one touchdown and two interceptions. With him? 66% completions, 8.25 yards per attempts, and three touchdowns to just one pick. Projected to a season, that’s the difference between a top 25 QB and a bottom 25 QB. USC’s defense can make a lot of quarterbacks look good, but the addition of this piece is a key variable and seems to have really changed to complexion of the entire offense.

Whether it will hold up against Oregon is another question. Sione Vaki caught Cal by surprise, and USC is a team that fundamentally fails to make defensive adjustments. The Ducks will have a strategy for Vaki and players who can execute it, and Utah fans should expect it to work.

Oregon’s offense is a different kind of puzzle – Oregon doubtless has some of the very best offensive numbers in the nation: 2nd in points per game, 1st in yards per carry, 17th in yards per pass attempt, and 3rd in yards per play. Opponent adjusted metrics agree, with the Ducks ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency.But when you actually look at what kind of defenses we’re talking about, the Ducks have been picking on another level of ineptitude. Their opponents’ ranks in yards per play allowed: 46th, 112th, 118th, 127th, 43rd, and 108th. They’ve never played a defense like Utah, and it’s hard to predict what will happen when they encounter each other.

There’s a lot of variability in this contest, and a lot of unknowns. At the end of the day, I stick with what I know and that’s that Bryson Barnes has been a big part of five games and struggled mightily in three of them. The Ducks will find a counter for Vaki and score enough to points to win. I see this game coming down to the final drive, but Barnes won’t be able to find his magic two weeks in a row.

Oregon 28, Utah 23