Statistically Speaking: Utah at NIU
Utah heads to DeKalb, Illinois to take on Northern Illinois, a G5 opponent a few years removed from their glory days. A name mentioned frequently, especially among those who would have you believe this is going to be closer than expected, is Sutton Smith. The dynamic, intimidating defensive end led the nation in sacks last year, and racked up plenty of tackles for loss, forced fumbles, and every other stat you can think of. He is an absolute monster and someone the Utes will have to account for on every play.
How big is his impact? Well, Smith may feel like a once-in-a-generation player to NIU fans, but historically the G5 tends to produce a few players like this now and again—game breaking, disruptive pass rushing talents who defy expectations and earn elite status, both from college observers and NFL scouts. In the last few years, G5 schools have turned out singular defensive talents like Khalil Mack (Buffalo), Bobby Wagner (USU), and Ezekial Ansah (BYU), among others.
We measured how the defenses improved over the course of 13 G5 defensive players who would go on to be drafted in the first or second round of the NFL draft, and found that they had a huge impact on their teams—overall, teams’ defensive yards per play improved an average of .3 yards per play while they had these studs on the roster, and the effect is particularly noticeable in the final year of the players' college careers, when they picked up a .5 yard improvement. Half a yard may not seem like a lot, but last year that was the difference between Georgia's no. 10 ranked defense and Duke's no. 39 ranked defense—a heck of a difference for one player to make.
Sutton Smith is in his last year, and his difference-making potential is at its zenith. The numbers back up what the film tells us—Smith is a game-changer that will change the entire offensive outlook on one side of the field. Will that be enough for NIU to keep it close?
The model says NIU has virtually no chance here—the probability drops off to 0 at Utes by 2. That's a little conservative, because the model is designed to predict results (or give gambling advice, either—if you put money on that 10 point line that's on you!) for a season rather than for a game. Still, it's a massive advantage. If Utah doesn't win this one handily, by at least a couple scores, it means that the lofty expectations the model has for Utah will start to come back down to earth.
What about this team should make them so easy to beat? It's their offense against Utah's relentless defense—the Huskies' scoring offense has been ranked in the 50s and 60s the last five years, pretty bad considering they play in the score-at-will MAC conference. This year doesn't look to be much different, and tomorrow's game will no doubt have Huskies fans—after watching NIU take on Iowa and then Utah—looking forward to playing a defense that is not among the best in the nation.
Utah 38, NIU 13
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