Inside the Numbers: Oregon State

The University of Utah faces an Oregon State team that has shown some significant improvement over the team that beat Utah last year in Corvalis. The Beavers had a very close game with USC last week and would almost certainly have won if they hadn’t turned it over four times.

Here’s what Utah fans should expect this year.

Let’s start by taking a look at what they lost on offense from last year’s team:

C - Nathan Eldridge. 81.6 (#4) on 896 snaps last year (and 3,252 total snaps). Eldridge was an excellent OL and that’s a lot of snaps to replace.

RG - Nous Keobounnam. 72.0 (#10) on 885 snaps last year (and 2,058 total snaps). Keobounnam was somewhat inconsistent, but was a pretty good OL and again, that’s a lot of snaps to replace.

TE - Teagan Quitoriano. 69.6 on 688 snaps last year, Quitoriano was taken in the 5th by the Texans. He had 19 catches on 24 targets for 214 yards (11.3 ypc) and 3 TD with no drops.

WR - Trevon Bradford. 76.5 (#9) on 512 snaps last year, Bradford got a FA contract with the Chargers. He had 42 catches (#1) on 62 targets for 628 yards (15.0 ypc) with 5 TD and 3 drops.

RB - BJ Baylor. 82.3 (#3) on 431 snaps last year, Baylor got a FA contract with the Packers. He had 227 carries for 1337 yards (5.9 ypc) with 13 TD last year.

WR - Zeriah Beason. 62.8 on 426 snaps last year, Beason transferred to WSU. He had 20 catches on 29 targets for 236 yards (11.8 ypc) with 1 TD and 3 drops.

WR - Champ Flemings. 66.1 on 288 snaps last year, Flemings transferred to AR ST. He had 15 catches on 27 targets for 270 yards (18.0 ypc) with 1 TD and 2 drops.

As the scores should make clear, Oregon State’s offense last year was performing well. Losing Baylor and Bradford along with 2 OL and an NFL TE in Quitoriano is a good amount to replace, but getting Nolan back makes the transition much easier.

Now let’s take a look at what they lost from last year’s defense:

LB - Avery Roberts. 54.1 on 745 snaps last year. He had 22 QB pressures, 123 tackles (#1), 9.5 TFL (#1), 2.5 sacks, 1 INT, 2 PBU, 17 missed tackles, and gave up 42 catches on 48 targets. Roberts wasn’t rated well by PFF, but was the clear leader of OSU’s defense last year and was in on nearly every play.

LB - Andrzej Hughes-Murray. 70.8 (#3) on 678 snaps last year. He had 22 QB pressures, 56 tackles (#5), 8.5 TFL (#2), 6 sacks (#1), 1 PBU, 8 missed tackles, and gave up 7 catches on 10 targets. He got a FA contract with the Rams last year.

DT - Keonte Schad. 63.8 on 538 snaps last year. He had 19 QB pressures, 46 tackles, 6 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 2 PBU, and 7 missed tackles.

S - Alton Julian. 78.7 (#2) on 325 snaps last year. He had 34 tackles, 1 INT, 3 PBU, 3 missed tackles, and gave up 9 catches on 15 targets.

DT - Alexander Skelton. 62.0 on 194 snaps last year. He had 3 QB pressures, 14 tackles, 0.5 TFL, and 3 missed tackles.

DT - Cody Anderson. 62.4 on 138 snaps last year. He had 6 QB pressures, 6 tackles, 1 TFL, and 1 sack.

CB - Elijah Jones. 58.1 on 107 snaps last year, he had 5 tackles, 1 PBU, 3 missed tackles, and gave up 4 catches on 6 targets. Jones got a FA contract with the Seahawks.

Those are all of the losses on defense. Roberts, Hughes-Murray, and Julian are fairly big losses, but nothing impossible to replace. There’s a good reason Oregon State is 3-1 this year and had a good chance to beat USC last week, and the amount of returning experience from last year is a big part of that.

Let’s take a look at who we are likely to see from Oregon State on offense this week:

QB - Chance Nolan. 84.7 (#1) on 249 snaps. Nolan has gone 64/104 (61.5%) for 913 yards (8.8 ypa) with 7 TD and 6 INT (although four of those were last week against USC). He’s the #3 QB in the Pac-12 according to PFF, ranked just ahead of Cam.

Chase had a terrible game against USC, but I don’t expect him to have another game as bad as he did last week, as he threw only 10 INT all last year. He’s a good QB and the main reason OSU is as dangerous as they are this year.

RB - Deshaun Fenwick. 63.2 on 100 snaps, Fenwick has 49 carries for 233 yards (4.8 ypc) with 4 TD.

RB - Damien Martinez. 63.6 on 84 snaps, Martinez has 28 carries for 122 yards (4.4 ypc) with 1 TD.

RB - Jamious Griffin. 80.4 (#2) on 39 snaps. Normally I wouldn’t include a player with only 39 snaps after 4 games, but Griffin has 24 carries for 144 yards (6.0 ypc) and 2 TD, so I expect he will get more and more use through the season as he gets comfortable with the system, after transferring from GA Tech.

OSU has three capable running backs, although Griffin’s blocking ability is sort of unknown at this point, as he’s only been called to block on 7 snaps. Regardless, this is a fairly talented and experienced backfield, and I fully expect them to try and establish the run game just like last year. They are rated okay at running the ball (76.4), although they’re on the lower half of the Pac-12, coming in at 8th (just behind WSU).

WR - Tre’Shaun Harrison. 65.5 on 200 snaps, Harrison has 20 catches on 30 targets for 250 yards (12.5 ypc) with 2 TD and 4 drops.

WR - Anthony Gould. 68.3 on 160 snaps, Gould has 12 catches on 19 targets for 228 yards (19.0 ypc) with 2 TD and 3 drops.

WR - Tyjon Lindsey. 62.7 on 107 snaps, Lindsey has 9 catches on 15 targets for 119 yards (13.2 ypc) with 1 TD and 2 drops.

WR - Silas Bolden. 77.5 (#3) on 76 snaps, Bolden has 4 catches on 8 targets for 49 yards (12.3 ypc) with 1 TD and 0 drops.

WR - John Dunmore. 71.0 (#7) on 62 snaps, Dunmore has 1 catch on 1 target for 26 yards with no TD or drops.

OSU’s WR room is full of solid WR. Nobody stands out dramatically, but they (along with their TEs) are the #2 rated receiving group in the Pac-12 as a group, with a receiving score of 74.1, just ahead of Utah (73.9).

TE - Jake Overman. 51.0 on 157 snaps, Overman is mostly a blocking TE, only running 37 routes with 1 catch on 2 targets for 15 yards.

TE - Luke Musgrave. 72.9 (#5) on 117 snaps, Musgrave was the receiving TE, with 11 receptions on 15 targets for 169 yards (15.4 ypc). Unfortunately for him and OSU, he was hurt against Fresno and didn’t play last week against USC, and is not expected back this week.

TE - Jack Velling. 62.1 on 51 snaps, Velling has stepped in for Musgrave as the receiving TE. He has 2 catches on 2 targets for 26 yards (13.0 ypc).

Musgrave is a big loss for OSU, and was the #1 receiving TE in the Pac-12 according to PFF, coming in just ahead of UCLA’s Ryan and then Kincaid and Kuithe. Utah fans know well the pain of losing a star TE, and while Velling has done okay in his place, he is not a replacement for a go-to receiving TE like Musgrave.

LT - Joshua Gray. 60.6 on 251 snaps, Gray has been a feature for OSU the past three seasons, with 1,675 career snaps at OSU. He’s roughly equal at pass blocking (56.5) and run blocking (59.6).

LG - Heneli Bloomfield. 63.3 on 137 snaps in his first year at OSU after transferring from USU. He’s a better run blocker (66.3) than pass blocker (58.1). He took over at LG as the starter against MT ST and also started last week against USC.

C - Jake Levengood. 69.1 on 251 snaps, Levengood has also played a lot of time the past three years, with 1,202 career snaps as a beaver. He’s better pass blocking (76.0) than run blocking (64.5).

RG - Brandon Kipper. 63.1 on 251 snaps, Kipper has also been a feature on OSU’s line the past four years, with 2,603 career snaps (including 147 at Hawaii as a FR). He’s a better run blocker (63.9) than pass blocker (52.8).

RT - Taliese Fuga. 76.5 (#4) on 247 snaps, Fuga has come on strong as a RS FR. He’s a great pass blocker (83.7) and solid run blocker (73.5)

LG Marco Brewer. 59.2 on 112 snaps, Brewer was injured against Fresno St and is day-to-day. He is rated worse than Bloomfield, but was the starter at the beginning of the year and last year (672 career snaps), so if he’s healthy I expect he’ll be back. He is a better pass blocker (70.7) than run blocker (59.1) in limited action.

Oregon State’s offense has been fairly average, ranking 53rd in 3rd-down conversion (.442), 64th in passing yards (250.5 ypg), 50th in rushing yards (180.8 ypg), 49th in passing efficiency (149.79), 47th in TOP (31 mpg). Still, being average at everything means that they don’t really have a weakness, which results in them being better than their other rankings at the most important statistic: 33rd in scoring (37.8 ppg).

Now a look at the defense.

DE - James Rawls. 68.6 on 169 snaps, Rawls has 5 QB pressures, 8 tackles, and 2.5 TFL. Rawls has played a little bit the last four years, with 727 career snaps.

DT - Simon Sandberg. 68.9 on 169 snaps, Sandberg has 6 QB pressures, 4 tackles, and 1 missed tackle. Sandberg has played significant time the last four years, with 1,366 career snaps.

DT - Isaac Hodgins. 68.2 on 113 snaps, Hodgins has 2 QB pressures, 6 tackles, and 0.5 TFL.

DE - Thomas Sio. 55.5 on 66 snaps. Sio has 5 tackles and 0.5 TFL.

DE - Sione Lolohea. 76.8 (#2) on 61 snaps, Lolohea had a great game against USC last week (rated 83.7) and has 5 QB pressures, 8 tackles, 1.5 TFL, and 2 missed tackles.

DE - Joe Golden. 63.5 on 60 snaps, Golden has 4 QB pressures, 3 tackles, and 1 missed tackle.

The DL is okay, but not great. Like a lot of 3-man fronts, they don’t get a ton of pressure from the DL, but leave that up to their linebackers and secondary.

MLB - Omar Speights. 48.2 on 217 snaps, Speights has 3 QB pressures, 22 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 4 missed tackles, and has given up 8 catches on 11 targets. Speights is poorly rated, but is one of OSU’s most experienced defenders, with 2,095 career snaps at OSU.

OLB - John McCartan. 66.1 on 185 snaps. McCartan has 14 QB pressures, 15 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 PBU, 3 missed tackles, and has given up 1 catch on 2 targets. McCartan is rated okay, and again has been at OSU for a while, with 921 career snaps over the past 4 years.

MLB - Kyrei Fisher-Morris. 58.2 on 182 snaps, he has 2 QB pressures, 25 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 PBU, 6 missed tackles, and has given up 9 catches on 12 targets.

OLB - Riley Sharp. 57.4 on 119 snaps, Sharp has 9 QB pressures, 6 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 sacks, and 1 missed tackle. As is somewhat of a theme at LB, he has a good amount of experience, with 1,374 snaps over the past four years.

OLB - Andrew Chatfield, Jr. 61.9 on 105 snaps, Chatfield has 6 QB pressures, 6 tackles, 1 TFL, and 2 missed tackles in his first year at OSU after transferring from Florida.

MLB - Easton Mascarenas-Arnold. 74.5 (#5) on 93 snaps, he has 2 QB pressures, 14 tackles, 2 TFL, and has given up 6 catches on 7 targets.

OLB - Cory Stover. 60.5 on 54 snaps, he has 4 tackles.

Again, the linebackers are not rated amazing, but are experienced and performing fairly well.

CB - Alex Austin. 75.9 (#3) on 264 snaps, Austin has 23 tackles, 1 INT, 3 PBU, 7 missed tackles and has given up 12 catches on 20 targets. Austin is one of the Pac-12’s top cover corners (#4), just ahead of Utah’s Phillips, and is fairly experienced, with 1,576 career snaps.

CB - Rejzhon Wright. 75.0 (#4) on 264 snaps, Wright has 13 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 2 INT, 2 PBU, 1 missed tackle, and has given up only 6 catches on 18 targets.

CB - Ryan Cooper. 64.9 on 163 snaps, Cooper has 3 QB pressures, 11 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT, 3 PBU, 4 missed tackles, and has given up 9 catches on 17 targets.

These are three good corners. Wright and Austin are two of the best in the Pac-12 and Cooper is a solid nickel. Wright and Austin have a ton of experience, but TR FR Cooper can make some errors. One issue with both Austin and Cooper is missed tackles, with 11 between them.

S - Jaydon Grant. 78.3 (#1) on 259 snaps, Grant has 5 QB pressures, 16 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 INT, 2 PBU, 2 missed tackles, and has given up 8 catches on 15 targets. Grant is extremely experienced, with 2,328 career snaps at OSU.

S - Kitan Oladapo. 70.5 (#6) on 238 snaps. He has 2 QB pressures, 29 tackles (#1), 2.5 TFL, 2 sacks, 2 PBU, 1 missed tackle, and has given up 8 catches on 14 targets. Oladapo is also fairly experienced, with 1,322 career snaps at OSU.

S/CB - Akili Arnold. 69.0 on 89 snaps, he has 5 tackles and 2 missed tackles.

OSU’s secondary is very good, with all four starters rated in the 70s, and Grant and Oladapo are excellent safeties.

Overall, OSU’s defense is playing well, although not quite as well as their offense. Just like the offense, they are more than the sum of their parts, as the amount of experience is significant even though the talent level is below much of the Pac-12. They have 6 INTs (10th), give up 206.5 ypg passing (51st), they’re 16th in passing efficiency defense (103.66), give up 150.8 ypg rushing (79th), and 23.5 ppg (63rd). One area where they’re struggling a bit is on 3rd down, as they’re 85th in opponent 3rd-down percentage (.400). Overall they’re better against the pass than the run, but are playing solidly.

I expect both sides will try and establish the run and will rely on the pass only to open the running game. Expect a lower-scoring game with Utah prevailing but not covering.

Prediction: Utah 24 OSU 16