Inside the Numbers: Florida Gators

The University of Utah’s highly anticipated season opner is almost here! Football is back and Utah starts with one of their best opening-week opponents in a while. Let’s talk about what Utah fans will see this weekend against UF.

First, here’s who they lost on offense:

QB - Emory Jones: This is the biggest loss. Jones played 748 snaps last year and was rated 80.6 by PFF. He went 224/346 (64.7%) for 19 TD and 13 INT. If Utah fans are upset they are missing Emory, don’t worry, he transferred to ASU, so we should see him in a few weeks.

TE - Kemore Gamble: Gamble played 656 snaps and was rated 57.2. He had 31 catches (#3 on the team) for 414 yards (13.4 ypc) and 4 TD (tied for #1). He transferred to UCF in the offseason.

T - Jean Delance: Delance played 635 snaps last year and was rated 55.5. He was picked up by the Bears as a UFA.

WR - Jacob Copeland: Copeland played 610 snaps last year and was rated 64.6. He had 41 receptions (T#1) for 642 yards (15.7 ypc) with 4 TD (T#1). He transferred to Maryland in the offseason.

OG - Stewart Reese. Reese played 552 snaps and was rated 55.5.

RB - Malik Davis. Davis played 356 snaps last year and was rated 77.8. He had 92 attempts (just behind Pierce, who had 100) for 487 yards (5.7 ypc) with 5 TD.

RB - Dameon Pierce: Pierce played 324 snaps last year and was rated 92.0. Despite the limited snap count, he’s a huge loss. He had 100 carries for 574 yards (5.7 ypc) with 13 TD. He was drafted by the Texans in the 7th round.

WR - Rick Wells: Wells played 261 snaps last year and was rated 75.9. He had 24 catches (#5) for 259 yards (#5) and 3 TD (T#3)

Those are the losses on offense. Jones was replaced in a lot of games by Anthony Richardson (who I’ll discuss in the returning players below), but he still was one of the highest-rated offensive players and would have provided some stability and consistency if he’d stayed. Losing the top two RB and three of the top five pass-catchers is also difficult. They lost 84.4% of their passing attempts, 85.3% of their passing yards, 52.1% of their catches, 52.9% of their receiving yards, 63.0% of their receiving TDs, 67.3% of their rushing yards, and 84.6% of their rushing TDs… Basically I expect Florida’s offense to have some growing pains.

Here are the defensive losses:

CB - Kaiir Elam: Elam is probably the biggest loss from last year. While he wasn’t super highly rated (61.8), he played 657 snaps and was drafted in the first round by the Bills. He had 29 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 1 INT and 5 PBU last year, and gave up catches on 18/35 targets (51.4%).

DE - Zach Carter: Played 604 snaps and was rated 78.0 (T#1). He had 31 tackles, 29 QB pressures, 11.5 TFL (#2), 7.5 sacks (#2), 2 PBU and 1 FF. He was taken by the Bengals in the 3rd round.

LB - Mohamoud Diabate: Diabate played 561 snaps and was rated 56.5. He had 89 tackles (#1), 19 QB pressures, and 2.5 TFL. Florida’s loss is Utah’s gain.

LB - Ty’Ron Hopper: Hopper played 471 snaps and was rated 60.9. He had 62 tackles (#4), 13 QB pressures, 8 TFL (#3), 2.5 sacks, and 2 PBU.

DT - Antonio Valentino: Valentino played 425 snaps and was rated 64.6. He had 23 tackles, 15 QB pressures, 3 TFL, and 1 sack. The Giants picked him up as a UFA.

LB - Jeremiah Moon: Moon played 416 snaps last year and was rated 63.5. He had 49 tackles, 15 QB pressures, 3.5 TFL, 2 sacks, and 1 PBU. The Ravens picked him up as a UFA.

LB - Khris Bogle: Bogle played 262 snaps last year and was rated 57.2. He had 22 tackles, 9 QB pressures, 3.5 TLF, and 1.5 sacks. Bogle transferred to MI ST.

DT - Daquan Newkirk: Newkirk played 239 snaps and was rated 68.3. He had 16 tackles, 9 QB pressures, 1.5 TFL, and 1 sack.

DT - Tyrone Truesdell: Truesdell played 183 snaps and was rated 68.1. He had 12 tackles, 2 QB pressures, and 1 INT.

S - Mordecai McDaniel: McDaniel played 102 snaps and was rated 36.4. He had 15 tackles and 1 INT.

There are some big losses here. Losing a first-round CB, 3rd round DE, and their top tackling LB (to Utah) is similar to Utah’s losses from last year’s defense. They also lost 847 snaps at DT, returning only two players with over 100 snaps at that spot. Same with MLB, where the loss of Diabate, Hopper, and Moon costs them 1,448 MLB snaps, leaving only one player with over 100 snaps at that spot.

Now here’s who to expect this week. First, the offense:

QB - Anthony Richardson: Richardson was the only QB other than Jones who took snaps last year, getting 192 snaps in 8 games and being rated 74.8. He went 38/64 (59.4) with 6 TD and 5 INT and ran 51 times for 401 yards and 3 TD. He looked somewhat overwhelmed last year, but having about 200 snaps and an offseason under his belt should help him improve. He is operating under a new HC and OC, however, so we’ll see if he’s learned the new system yet.

Richardson is the only QB with any real experience. The rest of the QB room consists of three freshmen: Miller (OSU transfer), Kitna (Jon’s son), and Brown (2*), plus a couple of walk-ons.

RB - Nay’Quan Wright: Wright played 245 snaps last year and was rated 72.7. He had 76 carries for 326 yards (4.3 ypc) and 1 TD.

RB - Lorenzo Lingard: Lingard played 30 snaps last year and has only 71 snaps in four years in college. He had 11 carries for 43 yards (3.9 ypc)

RB - Montrell Johnson: Johnson transferred with his coach from Louisiana. He had 347 snaps and was rated 78.1 at Louisiana. He went 162/838 (5.2 ypc) with 12 TD last year.

Florida has not yet released a depth chart for this week, so it is an unknown which of the three players will get the start. Even with a depth chart, it would be unknown who would get the majority of the carries, although I would expect Johnson to start at least early. None of them have a full season of snaps in college. There is also 4* FR Trevor Etienne who may take some snaps.

WR - Justin Shorter: Shorter had 690 snaps and was rated 68.6 last year. He had 41 catches (T#1) for 550 yards (#2) for 13.4 ypc with 3 TD (T#3). Expect him to be the go-to receiver and to be matched up a lot with CPIII.

WR - Trent Whittemore: Whittemore had 424 snaps last year and was rated 59.7. He had 19 catches (T#7) for 21 yards (#8) for 11.1 ypc with 1 TD.

WR - Xzavier Henderson: Henderson had 410 snaps last year and was rated 64.7. He had 26 catches (#4) for 277 yards (#4) for 10.7 ypc with 2 TD.

WR - Ja’Quavion Fraziars: Fraziars had 136 snaps and was rated 56.8 last year. He had 5 catches for 35 yards (7.0 ypc) and 2 TD.

WR - Ja’Markis Weston: Weston had 103 snaps last year and was rated 64.8. He had 5 catches for 68 yards (13.6 ypc) and 1 TD.

These are mostly solid and somewhat experienced WR. If Richardson can get them the ball, the Utah secondary is going to have to be prepared to cover a number of threats. Utah has several good corners and they’re healthy, so this could be a matchup of strength vs. strength if Richardson is ready to deliver. Florida fans are also excited about RS FR Daejon Reynolds. While Reynolds only had one catch for -5 yards last year, he was a big time recruit.

TE - Keon Zipperer: Zipperer had 280 snaps last year and was rated 56.6. He had 11 catches for 133 yards (12.1 ypc).

Zipperer is not much of a replacement for the loss of Gamble, so expect to see some snaps for some of the other TE on the roster, none of whom have played more than 100 offensive snaps.

OC - Kingsley Eguakun: Eguakun played 870 snaps last year (917 total) and was rated 60.9.

OT - Richard Gouraige: Gouraige played 836 snaps last year (2,263 total) and was rated 64.4.

OG - Josh Braun: Braun played 639 snaps last year (786 total) and was rated 50.6.

OG - Ethan White: White played 448 snaps last year (831 total) and was rated 66.7.

OT - Michael Tarquin: Tarquin played 352 snaps last year (448 total) and was rated 55.6.

OG - Richie Leonard IV: Leonard played 253 snaps last year (his first year) and was rated 59.2.

OG - O’Cyrus Torrence: Torrence transferred from Louisiana with his coach. He played 807 snaps at Louisiana last year (2,367 as a three-year starter for them) and was rated 88.2.

Torrence and Gouraige are very experienced, the rest of the OL has about one year’s worth. This is a solid unit, although most of the UF players were rated average at best.

Now a look at the defense.

DL - Gervon Dexter, Sr.: Dexter played 481 snaps last year and was rated 72.3. He had 50 tackles (#5), 24 QB pressures, 4.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks, and 1 PBU.

DL - Princely Umanmielen: Umanmielen played 243 snaps last year and was rated 73.9. He had 17 tackles, 14 QB pressures, 1.5 TFL, and 1 sack.

DL - Jalen Lee: Lee played 214 snaps last year and was rated 56.5. He had 9 tackles, 1 QB pressure, and 1.5 TFL.

That’s it for returning DL with at least 100 snaps last year. While Dexter and Umanmielen were rated well, this isn’t much experience and Utah’s OL should be able to get push. The bigger concern comes from the next level of Florida’s defense.

OLB - Brenton Cox, Jr.: Cox played 631 snaps last year and was rated pretty well at 77.9. He had 41 tackles (#8), 35 QB pressures, 14.5 TFL (#1), 8 sacks (#1), 4 PBU, and 1 FF. Cox is a monster on the edge and the OL/TE/RB are going to have to work hard to contain him.

MLB - Amari Burney: Burney played 400 snaps last year and was rated 48.2 He’s been a four-year contributor for Florida, but has never really broken free as a regular starter and his PFF rating has regressed every year. Last year he had 44 tackles (#7), 6 QB pressures, 2 TFL, and 3 PBU.

MLB - Derek Wingo: Wingo played 159 snaps last year and was rated 59.1. He had 15 tackles, 1 QB pressure, and 0.5 TFL last year.

That’s it for experienced LB. UF is expected to play a 3-3-5 with most of the QB pressure coming from Cox, but again, the MLBs are inexperienced or haven’t performed extremely well in the past few years. Expect a lot of pressure from Cox, but also expect room for Thomas and the TEs in the middle.

CB - Jason Marshall, Jr.: Marshall played 634 snaps last year and was rated 71.1. He had 23 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 INT, 3 PBu, and gave up 14 receptions on 38 targets (36.8%).

CB - Avery Helm: Helm played 503 snaps last year and was rated 54.5. He had 22 tackles, 1 TFL, 4 PBU, and gave up 23 receptions on 47 targets (48.9%).

CB - Tre’Vez Johnson: Johnson played 380 snaps last year and was rated 49.9. He had 23 tackles, 4 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT, 2 PBU, and gave up 27 catches on 38 targets (71.1%). He’s what New Mexico used to call the “Lobo” back, sort of a hybrid LB/NB.

CB - Jadarrius Perkins: Perkins played 279 snaps and was rated 56.3 last year. He had 25 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PBU, and gave up 20 receptions on 27 targets (74.1%).

S - Rashad Torrence II: Torrance played 803 snaps last year and was rated 71.2. He had 87 tackles (#3), 3.5 TFL, 3 INT (#1), 2 PBU, and gave up 18 receptions on 27 targets (66.7%).

S - Trey Dean III: Dean played 796 snaps last year and was rated 60.4. He had 88 tackles (#2), 4 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT, 8 PBU (#1), and gave up 14 catches on 30 targets (46.7%).

Those are all of the experienced players in the secondary. Marshall and Torrence are both very good, and while Dean isn’t rated super well, he’s a solid safety. Helm, Johnson, and Perkins can be picked if Utah’s WRs and TEs are ready.

It’s hard to evaluate Florida because they have all new coaches and a lot of new faces. Richardson is a talented QB but last year as a FR he made lots of young player mistakes. Capitalizing on those mistakes will be important for Utah this week.

I expect both offenses to be ahead of both defenses this week. Florida has 3 returning OL starters and a superstar OL transfer, so despite losing their top RBs and several pass catchers, they can build around that OL. The same is true for Utah, returning 4 OL from last year, except we’re also returning our QB, RBs, and pass catchers (except Covey). On the other side, both defenses are replacing stud DEs (Tafua for Utah; Carter for UF), linebackers (Lloyd and Sewell for Utah; Diabate, Hopper, and Moon for UF), plus UF has to break in a new #1 corner to replace Elam. Essentially, even with the rain, I’m expecting more scoring than the typical Utah game. The big X-Factor this week is the atmosphere at the Swamp. I expect Kyle to handle it and to run the ball a lot.

Prediction: Utah 31 - Florida 24