A Look at the Opponent: Cal
The Basics:
Record: 4-3 (1-3 Pac-12)
Avg. total yards: 299.5
Avg. pass yards: 186.3
Avg. rush yards: 113.2
Avg. points per game: 18.7
Total yards allowed per game: 375.5
Pass yards allowed per game: 213.7
Rush yards allowed per game: 161.8
Points per game allowed: 19.7
The Utes are coming off a rain-soaked, gutsy 21-3 win over the then #17 Arizona State Sun Devils, where Zack Moss rewrote the Utah rushing record books and the defense suffocated freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels. This weekend, Rice-Eccles plays host to the California Golden Bears, who are coming off a close loss to Oregon State in Berkeley in a defensive battle themselves, as both teams finished with only 282 total yards. The Bears were the Pac-12’s surprise hot team out of the gates, with good wins on the road at Washington and at Ole Miss, but have now dropped three straight as we settle into conference play. This is another game that Utah looks to be heavily favored (88.1% per ESPN’s FPI; opened as an 18-point favorite according to Vegas), but Cal’s head coach Justin Wilcox is a defensive-minded coach and his squad already proved that it can win in tough environments this season.
Strength: Scoring defense
Despite its 4-3 record, Cal’s defense has been fairly consistent all season. The most points they have allowed this year is 24 in a loss to Arizona State. Their defense travels well, too, as it has helped anchor their big wins in Seattle and Oxford, and they held Oregon to just 17 points in Eugene. They are led by senior linebacker Evan Weaver with 59 solo tackles and 2.5 sacks on the year, two of which were in their last game at Oregon State. With the defense only allowing more than 20 points just twice this season, they are giving their offense a shot to win...if their offense could figure out how to produce points. Even though have lost three in a row, Cal’s defense could still provide a strong test early at Utah.
Question mark: Offensive production
It is no secret that Cal has struggled to move the ball and score on offense. They have only had two games where a quarterback threw for over 200 yards and have not had a 100-yard rusher since their first game against UC-Davis. With their defense holding teams to about 20 points per game, their offense does not need a lot to give them a good shot to win games. With their starting quarterback out and their backup getting hurt at Oregon State, the Bears offense is floundering at best. Even against a mediocre Oregon State defense, the offense could not even muster 300 yards and allowed nine sacks. Given what the Utah defense did against Arizona State, look for the entire defensive line to set up camp in the California backfield all night.
X-factor: Turnovers
Normally, this would be a factor that is a bit more under Cal’s control, but in a game where a couple injuries to Utah from the Arizona State game and Cal’s toughness on the road, turnovers look to be a potentially large player in this matchup. Utah’s defense was strong enough to overcome four turnovers against Arizona State, but proved costly in the USC game. On the other side, a few early turnovers by Cal could put this game into blowout mode really fast, similar to Utah’s win over Oregon State. Being an 18-point underdog, Cal is going to need all the help they can get, and winning the turnover battle might be the only thing that gives them a real shot to make this game interesting.
Score prediction: Utah 31, California 10