A Look at the Numbers: Utah at Arizona
Alright, two games down. First up, the last regular season road trip for the University of Utah, to face Kevin Sumlin’s Arizona Wildcats.
Let’s start with what they lost:
QB Nobody-- Everyone who threw a pass last year is back (although Rodriguez has only played 8 snaps and hasn’t thrown a pass this year)
RB Mariscal-- The RS SR entered the transfer portal this spring, but I don’t know if he ended up anywhere. He went 17/85 (5.0 ypc) with 1 TD last year. Everyone else who had at least 5 carries last year is back.
WR Brown-- Brown was the #1 pass catcher last year in receptions (64) and #2 in yards (655; 10.2 ypc) and T#2 in TD (6). PFF rated him as the #5 offensive player for AZ last year (73.1)
WR Poindexter-- Poindexter was #2 in receptions (42), #1 in yards (759; 18.1 ypa) and #1 in TD (11). He was also the #1 rated offensive player for AZ last year and the only one in the 80s (83.7).
WR Ellison-- Ellison was #3 in receptions (29), yards (525; 18.1 ypa) and T#2 in TD (6). PFF considered him slightly below average (64.2), but he got a lot of open looks with the coverage required for Brown and Poindexter.
WR Cooper-- Cooper transferred to UTEP in the off-season. He was T#4 in catches (18), #4 in yards (368; 20.4 ypc) but didn’t grab a TD. PFF considered him fairly average (67.2).
That’s a lot of WR talent to replace, and explains one of the reasons Arizona’s passing game is struggling.
Now for the other reason their passing game is struggling, the OL:
OL Friekh-- The starting LT for most of last year (544 snaps) and the top OL last year (73.4), Friekh has been a big loss, but Laie has stepped in admirably (as I’ll discuss below)
OL Eldridge-- Eldridge missed last year due to injury, but started two years at C and was expected back for this year to anchor the line. In 2017 he was rated at 70, which is solid.
OL Lukusa-- The OG played 191 snaps last year and started the BYU and Houston games. He wasn’t very good (rated 59.0).
OL Eletise-- The OG started at the end of the year last year (UCLA, Colorado, WSU, ASU). While he didn’t play very well at Arizona (58.3), he transferred to Hawaii and is having a good year for them (71.3)
OL McCauley-- McCauley was #3 on the offense in snaps last year (906), just barely behind Creason (908) and Laie (907). He wasn’t rated well last year (62.1) but is the #2 OL this year (70.6) and is likely out with injury.
OL Creason-- Creason played more snaps than any other Arizona offensive player last year (908) and was their #2 OL last year (71.0). He is still on the team, but is likely out with injury. This year he’s rated 70.5 and is their #3 OL (behind Burrola and McCauley)
OL Burrola-- Burrola has started at RT for 6 of the 10 games, and played in 3 others, but didn’t play in the Oregon game last week. I do not know if he’s benched or injured, but he didn’t play a snap. If he’s out, that’s a big loss, as he’s their #1 rated OL (72.9) this year and has played 400 snaps.
OL Cain-- Cain has started every game he’s played at RG (missing only the Hawaii game). He has 628 snaps and is rated 63.6 (putting him between #7 and #10 among the OL, depending on which AZ OL you want to count)
That’s eight lost offensive linemen who either contributed last year or were expected to be contributors this year. Again, McCauley, Creason, Burrola and Cain might not all be out, but if none of them play this week the OL is in trouble against one of the best DLs in college football. That would be true even if they were all playing, but it will be extra true if they’re not. Combine that with the loss of the top three WR from last year, and a QB who is a better runner than passer, and it’s a recipe for a struggling offense. Amazingly, they’re not struggling putting up yards (470.2 ypg is #16 in the nation), but they are struggling to put up points (30.2 ppg is 65th). ESPN’s offensive efficiency numbers for them are average (58.8 is 43rd in the nation but 7th in the PAC 12).
Now on Defense. The losses are as follows:
DT Boles-- Boles had 35/5/1.5 last year plus 1 FF and 2 FR. He was PFF’s #6-rated player who had at least 100 snaps (70.5).
DT Johnson-- Went 31/8.5/3 last year, plus 1 PBU, 1 FF, and 2 FR. He was PFF’s #1 player on Arizona’s 2018 defense (83.7) and the only one over 80. Drafted by the Lions, but I don’t think he played.
CB Hearn-- Hearn played in every game last year, garnering 26 tackles, 1 TFL and 1 PBU. He started the last 3 games and played 383 total snaps (about 45% of the total snaps) but wasn’t rated highly by PFF (61.8) which might explain why he transferred to Wyoming.
CB Hough-- Hough had 22 tackles and 3 PBU last year. He only played in 7 games, but started all of them (ending with the Utah game) except SUU. Played 421 snaps but was poorly-rated by PFF (59.2)
S Flannigan-Fowles-- The safety was #3 in tackles for Arizona last year (56/5/1 plus 7 PBU) and was Arizona’s #3 rated defensive player by PFF (77.0). He got a UFA contract from San Francisco.
S Hayes-- Hayes had 20 tackles and 1 FF last year. He played sparingly in reserve, but got a decent number of snaps (167) and started the BYU and Houston games. He transferred to Louisville in the off-season. PFF liked him as well (70.9).
These aren’t terrible losses. They lost 3 of the top 10 tacklers (#3, #8, and #9) and two good DL plus a safety, but they should have been better on defense than they’ve looked.
Now let’s take a look at who the team will actually be facing:
QB Tate-- We don’t know if Utah will face Tate, as he’s been periodically benched for Gunnell. Still, PFF thinks Tate is playing pretty well (75.4; #4 on the offense among those with at least 100 snaps). His stats for the season are 131/216 (60.6%) for 1683 yards (7.8 ypa) with 12 TD and 8 INT. It’s the interceptions causing the problem, as that is a bad TD/INT ratio (1.5/1). Tate also is #2 in rushing attempts, going 78/331 (4.2 ypc) with 3 TD. He’s not the first mobile QB Utah has faced, but he’s more experienced than DTR so he may not be as easy to rattle.
QB Gunnell-- PFF likes Gunnel more than Tate (81.1), but he’s not nearly as mobile (28 attempts for 9 yards or 0.3 ypc). He is a better passer though, going 93/139 (66.9%) for 1143 yards (8.2 ypa) with 9 TD and 1 INT. With Arizona’s OL troubles, don’t be surprised if Utah sees Tate.
RB Taylor-- Taylor is a very good RB. He’s got 124/640 (5.2 ypc) with 5 TD this year and is rated 88.3 by PFF (#1 on the offense). That puts him 10th in the country among those with at least 50 rushing attempts.
RB Wiley-- Wiley is the #2 RB. He’s played 152 snaps and is rated 65.2. His stats are 28/100 (3.6 ypc). He blocks more than runs (running on only 18% of his snaps)
RB Brightwell-- Brightwell is #3 by a hair. He’s played 138 snaps and is rated 77.5. He’s got 60/363 (6.1 ypc) and 5 TD. He runs a lot more than Wiley (43% of his snaps)
RB Smith-- Smith is just behind Brightwell for #4. He’s played 133 snaps and is rated 72.5. He’s got 25/180 (7.2 ypc) and 1 TD. He is also more of a blocker than a runner (19% of his snaps) but he’s been fairly effective, although 87 of those yards came on two runs.
As I mentioned last week, Taylor is one of two Pac-12 running backs who have set themselves apart this year (along with Moss). He’s very good, and the backups aren’t terrible.
WR Casteel-- Their #1 receiver in catches (37) is #2 in yards with 372 (10.1 ypc) and 3 TD (T#1). PFF isn’t a fan (62.7), and that’s going to be a theme for Arizona pass-catchers. He is #3 in snaps for WR with 420.
WR Cunningham-- #2 in catches (30) and #3 in yards (356; 11.9 ypc) with 2 TD (T#4). PFF doesn’t like him either (64.4) although he is #1 among their WR/TE. He is #6 in WR snaps with 325.
WR Joiner-- #3 in catches (26) and #1 in yards (391; 15.0 ypc) with 3 TD (T#1). PFF doesn’t like him either (58.7). He’s #2 in snaps for WR with 428.
WR Peterson-- #4 in catches (19) and yards (344; 18.1 ypc) with 2 TD (T#4). PFF isn’t a fan here either (see what I mean), with a rating of 61.5. He has the most snaps among WR with 452.
WR Berryhill-- T#5 in catches (18) and #5 in yards (281; 15.6 ypc) with 3 TD (T#1). He’s the 2nd best regular WR, according to PFF, with a rating of 63.9, and that’s not a good sign for Arizona. He also has the fifth most snaps, with 326.
WR Dixon-- #6 in catches (14) and #6 in yards (143; 10.2 ypc) with 2 TD (T#4). He’s the last receiver over 10 catches, and PFF has him rated 57.6. He’s played 336 snaps (#4 among the WR)
This is a bad group of WR. Nobody over 65. As bad as UCLA’s WRs were, Arizona’s are worse. Again, among Pac-12 and BYU WR with at least 20 targets, Cunningham is #25, Berryhill is #26, and Casteel is #30. They’re not good.
OL-- Okay, we pointed out the problems for Arizona’s OL above. Assuming none of the three “doubtful” OL play, here’s what we’re likely to face: RT Burrola. Again, I couldn’t find why Burrola didn’t play against Oregon. There’s no injury report for him, so he might play this week. If he does, that’s good for Arizona, as he’s their top-rated OL at 72.9. LT Laie has stepped in at LT for Friekh and has played okay, although not great (66.1). He’s a better pass blocker (72.3) than run blocker (58.9) but is very experienced (746 snaps this year). During the Oregon game he shifted over to LG. RG Jacobs started the Oregon game and played poorly. For the season he’s played 156 snaps and is rated 64.4. Freshman LT Morgan also played much of the Oregon game, and did okay (63.4). For the season he’s only played 73 snaps and is rated 62.1. If he’s the starter, Anae could get significantly closer to Dimick’s record. C Bailey started the Oregon and OSU games and will likely start this week. He’s rated 61.9 and has 181 snaps on the season. LG Congel has played or started most of the season, but rarely plays an entire game (only 3 games with over 60 snaps). He’s not good (61.3) but has played the 4th most snaps on the OL (behind Laie, McCauley, and Fears). Finally, RT Fears has played or started at RT depending on Burrola’s availability. He’s played 466 snaps but is their worst-rated OL at 56.6.
That offensive line is a disaster, and it’s facing one of the best DL in college football. This should be ugly, like ASU and UCLA.
PFF likes two Arizona defenders: CB Burns and CB Roland-Wallace. That’s it. Everyone else is below 70. This isn’t a good defense, but it has experience and should be better than it is. Still, there’s a reason three defensive coaches have been fired the past few weeks, including the DC.
DL-- Like most schools in today’s day and age, Arizona rotates DL quite a bit. The top 8 snap counts for their DL are as follows: DE Harris (490 snaps; 54.7 rating); DT Mason (455 snaps; 67.6 rating); DE Brown (390 snaps; 52.1 rating); DT Connolly (310 snaps; 62.4 rating); DE Belknap (249 snaps; 62.8 rating); DT Barrs (247 snaps; 50.5 rating); DE Wilborn (247 snaps; 61.3 rating); and DT Tapusoa (214 snaps; 58.4 rating). None of them are good (Belknap is the highest-rated at 62.8) and several are quite bad (below 60 is a bad score). The best pass-rusher of the group is Wilborn (66.1), with nobody else above 65. The best run-defender of the group is Mason (70.6), and one other is above 65 (Tapusoa at 65.8). Several of them have absolutely terrible tackling scores (below 50), namely Tapusoa (38.3), Connolly (38.8), Wilborn (47.0). This should be a good day for Utah’s OL to get some kinks out, because this isn’t a good DL. Statistically only Harris has more than 2 sacks (with 3.5) and he’s also the only DL with more than 5 TFL (with 6). Mason also has 5 TFL but only 1 sack.
LB-- The top Arizona LB is Schooler (698 snaps; 68.0 rating). He’s their top tackler (78/7.5/0.5) and one of only three AZ players above 50 tackles (the other two are LB Fields and S Young). Schooler also has 2 PBU and 2 FR. Fields is the #2 LB (580 snaps; 65.6 rating). He’s got 75/4/1.5, putting him at #2 in tackles. He’s also got an INT and 3 PBU, with 1 FF. Pandy is the #3 LB (527 snaps; 54.7 rating) but PFF does not like him. He’s #4 in tackles with 47/5/2 and also has an INT. No other LBs have taken 50 snaps, so these are the three we’ll see.
CB-- As I mentioned above, PFF likes Arizona’s corners. Burns (78.9) has 38 tackles, 3 INT, and 7 PBU. Roland-Wallace (71.1) has 27 tackles, 1 INT, and 4 PBU. These are the only two Arizona defenders rated over 70, but both are solid. Whittaker actually has more snaps than either (635), but PFF doesn’t think as highly of him (60.7). His stats are good however (44 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack, 3 INT, 5 PBU). This may be a case of he gets matched up on the #1 receiver, so he struggles more than the other side. Wolfe (60.9) has also played a significant number of snaps (142), so he may see some time too. He has 6 tackles and 2 PBU this year.
S-- T Young is the #3 rated player on Arizona’s defense (68.3) but he’s only played 66 snaps and likely won’t see the field this week. His rating is decent because he faced only Hawaii and NAU. The starting safeties are S. Young (65.9) who has 53 tackles (#3 on the team), 2 TFL, and 1 INT plus 2 PBU; and Cooper (64.6) who has 38 tackles (T#6), 2 TFL, and 2 PBU. C Young (65.0) has also played significant snaps (395) and has 25 tackles (#10) and 3 PBU. I’m not sure if all of those Youngs are related to each other, but it is an interesting thing to have three safeties named Young.
As mentioned above, Arizona’s defense is bad. Their best player (Burns) is rated 78.9. That would put him #7 on Utah’s list. Their #2 player (Roland-Wallace) is rated 71.1. That would put him #15 on Utah’s list.
Basically Arizona is a bad team. They have a good RB, two okay QBs, no WR, a bad OL that is also hurt, and a pretty bad defense outside of two corners. Expect a lot of running room for Moss and expect Kuithe to have another big game.
Here’s the team breakdown for both sides:
Passing Offense:
Utah- 87.7 (#2 in the Pac-12 behind Oregon)
Arizona- 79.0 (#6 in the Pac-12)
Utah remains at #2, despite our pass-blocking falling to dead last. Arizona is passing okay and pass-blocking okay (#5), but they haven’t seen a defense like Utah’s (yes, including last week). Expect a tough game for their offense and expect Utah to be able to find some success passing.
Receiving Offense:
Utah- 74.3 (#3 in the Pac-12, behind USC and WSU)
Arizona- 62.9 (#11 in the Pac-12, ahead of only Cal)
As I mentioned above, Arizona’s WR are not good. With poor WR against one of the best secondaries in the nation, don’t expect much for Arizona through the air (regardless of QB).
Rushing Offense:
Utah- 84.6 (#3 in the Pac-12)
Arizona- 88.7 (#1 in the Pac-12)
Arizona is running well both because of Taylor (the #2 RB in the Pac-12) and Tate (the #4 running QB, behind DTR, Luton, and Huntley). They aren’t good at run blocking (#11 in the PAC 12). This is what I expect them to try, but their OL has struggled run blocking, and Utah is fantastic against the run. Still, a mobile QB and a good RB have traditionally been a recipe for some success against Utah (although not this year, as UCLA can tell you).
Overall Offense:
Utah- 80.9 (#4 in the Pac-12)
Arizona- 76.2 (#8 in the Pac-12)
Utah is good through the air and on the ground, with good receivers but some suspect blocking. Arizona is average at passing, but has no good receivers, and is good at running but not at run blocking. Utah’s better at pretty much everything except pass blocking, but as I’ll point out in a second, Arizona is not set up to take advantage.
Run Defense:
Utah- 92.1 (#1 in the Pac-12, by a wide margin as ASU is #2 and rated 83.5)
Arizona- 61.5 (#11 in the Pac-12)
As mentioned above, Arizona’s DL and LB are not great. This is a recipe for problems against Utah. Expect Moss to get to 100 without much trouble, and don’t expect Taylor to have much success.
Tackling:
Utah- 80.1 (#3 in the Pac-12)
Arizona- 82.9 (#2 in the Pac-12)
Here’s something Arizona does well. They don’t miss too many tackles (except the two DL I mentioned above). Still, they haven’t faced Moss yet. Expect that ranking to slip after doing so.
Pass Rush:
Utah- 79.6 (#2 in the Pac-12)
Arizona- 62. (#10 in the Pac-12)
Arizona isn’t getting pressure and they’re not getting sacks (13 for the year, which puts them at 113 in the NCAA). Huntley should have a nice clean pocket this week.
Pass Coverage:
Utah- 93.3 (#1 in the Pac-12)
Arizona- 74.0 (#6 in the Pac-12)
Unlike last week against UCLA, Arizona is solid in coverage. This is a different challenge than last week, when UCLA had a good pass rush but didn’t play coverage. Huntley will have time to make good decisions, but he’ll need to be more careful because Arizona plays better on the back end.
Overall Defense:
Utah- 94.4 (#1 in the Pac-12)
Arizona- 67.6 (#9 in the Pac-12)
Arizona is a bad defense (ahead of only OSU, WSU, and CU). If Utah plays their game, there will be lots of points for the taking, and lots of yards (especially on the ground).
OVERALL TEAM SCORES:
Utah- 92.9 (#1 in the Pac-12)
Arizona- 75.4 (#8 in the Pac-12)
Arizona is actually not a horrible team, particularly on offense, but they’re not good and they’re running into a buzz-saw.
ESPN also likes Utah:
ESPN Offensive Efficiency:
Utah- 80.3 (#8 in the nation; #2 in the Pac-12 behind WSU)
Arizona- 58.8 (#44 in the nation, #7 in the Pac-12)
ESPN Defensive Efficiency:
Utah- 88.7 (#4 in the nation; #1 in the Pac-12)
Arizona- 41.7 (#88 in the nation, #9 in the Pac-12)
Prediction
As with UCLA, Arizona will try to run the ball. Arizona is a little better at it than UCLA, but they’re worse on defense, so this one should be over quickly when Arizona gets behind and has to try and catch up. Utah 42 - Arizona 13 (yes, I think Arizona breaks the 10 point mark).
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